Stocks Are High, but Oil Still Gets a Vote
Stocks keep setting records, but oil prices and Treasury yields are still the parts of this rally that make me pause.
Entries & reflections
Notes from the lab, from home, and from the road between.
Stocks keep setting records, but oil prices and Treasury yields are still the parts of this rally that make me pause.
Stocks are hitting records again, but the rally still leans hard on AI chips. That makes the strength real, and a little narrow.
Stocks are celebrating Iran-deal hopes, but bond yields are still asking whether inflation and Fed policy are really solved.
Stocks are celebrating softer oil and deal hopes, but sticky inflation keeps the Fed risk alive.
Tech and lower oil are helping stocks hit records, but long-term yields and Fed worries make the rally harder to trust.
Stocks want to rebound, but oil, inflation, earnings, and geopolitics are still pulling the market in different directions.
Broader stocks felt pressure from Strait of Hormuz tensions, while Circle and Coinbase rallied on Clarity Act progress.
Polymarket’s Chainalysis partnership is a small news item with a bigger message: crypto is moving toward monitoring and trust.
Stocks were near a confident place, then oil, yields, and Iran tensions all moved at once. That changes how I read the selloff.
Crypto can be useful, but it is not magic money. A plainspoken look at the risks, habits, and questions worth asking first.